The Looming 2026 Regs
Formula One seasons always have a split personality. On one hand, you have the immediate: ten races left, a title on the line, every point precious. On the other, you have the creeping future: the massive rules reset.
And 2026 isn’t just any reset. It’s the reset. Smaller, lighter cars. Active aero with adjustable wings that’ll make DRS a thing of the past and power units that balance hybrid power differently and force teams to rethink efficiency. It’s a tectonic shift—exactly the kind that topples dynasties and crowns new ones (a la Mercedes in 2014).
So the real question for the rest of 2025 isn’t just who wins this year? It’s who’s still fully invested in 2025, and who’s already shifted to 2026? (and can McLaren balance that shift and not fall behind).
Who’s Still Swinging in 2025, and Who’s Banking on Tomorrow?
It’s easy to say “every team races to win,” but the budgets don’t lie. CFD hours and wind-tunnel runs are limited. Development tokens have to be meticulously planned out. Every upgrade for the 2025 car is an upgrade not being prototyped for 2026.
Some teams (like McLaren) can afford to multi-task. When you’re in a title fight, you don’t just toss the present away. You invest enough to keep pace, while slipping a few engineers through the side door into the future. With their Constructors Championship lead, once they have it wrapped up, I assume there will be minimal changes to the 2025 car at that point. Let Lando and Oscar battle it out as-is and focus on 2026.
But teams like Williams? They’ve already given the wink and nod: 2026 is the focus. The current car is stable enough, but it’s not going to become a race winner overnight. Better to use the rest of the year as an extended live testbed while stockpiling hours for the rule shift.
Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull? They’re in an awkward middle ground. Too proud to throw in the towel on 2025, but too clever not to hedge bets on 2026. Watch their development cadence in the next three months. If big updates dry up after Zandvoort, that’s your tell: their eyes are already looking down the road (especially with the way the Red Bull organization has suffered and changed this season). A lot of the existing issues that have lingered for years with certain teams (Ferrari and Mercedes), will likely be gone next year with a whole new car coming in (too late to fix it now).
Williams: The Two-Alpha Experiment
Speaking of Williams, let’s talk about the quietly fascinating pairing of Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz.
Albon has been the steady hand—cool under pressure, relentless in wringing performance out of machinery that isn’t always world-class. He’s the driver who doesn’t panic, who finds ways to keep cars in the points column when others might drift.
Carlos, meanwhile, is the new project. His reputation at Ferrari was of a solid hardworking driver who gives great technical feedback. At Williams, the adaptation curve has been visible. Early weekends showed him wrestling with the car’s quirks, but race by race, he’s been working to close the gap to Alex, but it just hasn't manifested as well as I thought it would.
The big question: can Carlos turn “sometimes close” into “always close”? If he does, Williams suddenly looks like a team with two genuine alphas—rare air for a squad that’s spent most of the last decade just trying to survive. If he doesn’t, Alex stays the undisputed reference, and Carlos becomes another option for other teams after 2026. This is where the focus on 2026 will hopefully find some better common ground for driving style between the pair.
Either way, watching this pairing evolve is one of the low-key joys of the second half of 2025.
The Palou Paradox: Silly Season’s Spiciest Rumor
Every silly season has its moment of lunacy. This year’s candidate: Alex Palou to Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen.
On paper, it makes zero sense. Red Bull have an entire academy of drivers waiting in the wings. They have Hadjar, Lindblad, and others who could slot in tomorrow. Historically, they almost never go outside the family unless desperate..............BUT none of them have worked out in recent times and they were willing to part with Perez who was at least somewhat reasonable at the time still (anxious to see if he still has the fire when he gets in the Cadillac - I think he's stoked to be back on the grid and give it all).
But… there’s something about Palou that makes the rumor hard to just let go of. He’s fast, he’s consistent, and he doesn't let the pressure get to him. He’s also been dominant in IndyCar (securing his fourth title), which makes people wonder: is there a universe where Red Bull poaches him just to shake things up? I am all for it!
In modern F1, where there is smoke, there is probably some semblance of fire. But silly season is about fun as much as fact. And imagining Max and Palou in the same garage? That’s the kind of spicy dream I would love to see become reality.
Alpine’s Empty Chair
If Palou-to-Red-Bull is the spice, Alpine’s second seat is the mystery meat.
Pierre Gasly is secure. He’s shown enough speed and leadership to be the anchor. But who joins him? That’s the question Alpine can’t seem to answer.
Do they go all-in on the academy? Jack Doohan has been the heir-apparent for what feels like forever, but he couldn't grab it by the horns and slam the door shut yet. Franco Colapinto has shown promise and pace of very late (Hungary) but I still have lots of questions. Felipe Drugovich could be an alternative option who has been waiting for a seat, but I have a feeling money will make a difference here with Flavio in charge. They aren't showing anyone enough to prove they could lure a driver like Sainz or Albon in the future.
Or do they look outside? The market isn’t exactly overflowing with free agents, and Cadillac just hoovered up two veterans who might have been options. Alpine need stability, not another half-season of excuses. If they get it wrong again, they risk becoming the team synonymous with “driver merry-go-round.” (worse than Red Bull - they are already on par in my opinion).
One thing’s clear: Alpine can’t afford to enter 2026 with more uncertainty. Whoever gets that second seat, they need to be capable of getting in the points and buttoning up that seat. Otherwise, all the shiny new Mercedes power units won’t matter (unless they are far clear of the Ferrari engine).
Ferrari and the Hamilton Homework Assignment
Which brings us to perhaps the juiciest subplot: Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari.
This was supposed to be the dream of an 8th Championship in Ferrari Red. The final act where Hamilton stamps his legacy riding a prancing horse. And yes, there have been flashes. Moments where Lewis reminds everyone that he can be eternally solid like Fernando.
But the flashes haven’t become a flame or much beyond a few sizzling moments. Too often, Charles Leclerc has picked up that car and wrenched it into a place it shouldn't be, especially in qualifying. Too often, Ferrari’s issue with the ride height and rear grip have reared their ugly heads.. And too often, Lewis has looked like a man still fighting against the machinery rather than being able to wring something out of it.
This isn’t about raw pace—Hamilton showed last year he could still get on top of the Mercedes in races. It’s about comfort. Ferrari’s car just can't deliver a vibe he can figure out. Trust takes time. Trust requires repeatability. And Ferrari hasn’t always been the team best known for consistency the last few years. With Fred being extended, I believe they are on the right track and for 2026 they'll have a full reset with Lewis' full input. Hopefully it doesn't take them long to figure out the car and they can be in the fight if the Mercedes engine rumors are true.
The question is simple: will Hamilton find the sweet spot before the season ends? If he does, the back half of 2025 could be lit with intra-Ferrari fireworks, and we finally get the Charles vs. Lewis showdown we’ve been waiting for. If he doesn’t, Ferrari will end up helping Lewis end his storied career on a whimper instead of a roar. I'm going to go extra positive here (even slightly delusional) and bank on Fred, Lewis, and Charles getting it all together next season (not a championship) but at least some wins and give Lewis a chance to stick around for 2027.
Ten Races, Infinite Storylines
And so we head into the last ten races with more questions than answers.
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Will McLaren’s internal duel stay civil, or does it boil over?
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Which teams quietly flip the “focus on 2026” switch and stick with what they've got the rest of 2025?
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Can Carlos get on top of the car more often and close the gap to Alex?
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Will Alpine stop spinning their second-seat wheel of fortune and help Franco succeed?
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And will Lewis finally tame the red beast and turn flashes of his old self into full weekends?
Formula One thrives in these liminal spaces—when the present collides with the future, when rumor collides with reality, and when drivers collide with the limits of machinery and patience.
The summer break is over. The storylines are alive. For Lando and Oscar, the crown and glory await one of them.
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